The outcome of Thursday’s election in Britain, likely ending the Conservative Party’s 14-year rule, brings daunting challenges not seen since World War Two for the incoming government.
The economy has struggled to grow, and public services like health care face severe strain with limited financial resources available for repairs. The government also lags behind on immigration and housing targets.
Opinion polls strongly favor Keir Starmer’s Labour Party over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives. The following points outline the key tasks ahead for the next administration.
ECONOMY
Britain has experienced slow economic growth since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, similar to many other wealthy nations.
While growth since 2010 under Conservative leadership has outpaced Germany, France, and Italy marginally, it lags behind the United States when adjusted for population growth due to high immigration.
Living standards are projected to decline over a parliamentary term for the first time since the 1950s.
Sunak believes the economy is rebounding post-COVID and energy price hikes, while Starmer promises Labour would achieve the strongest sustained growth among G7 nations.
Since the pandemic, Britain’s economy ranks second weakest in the G7.
POVERTY
Poverty reduction has slowed since 2010, with absolute poverty decreasing at a much slower rate compared to previous years.
Recent indicators show worsening hardship, particularly due to high inflation affecting lower-income households.
In 2019/20, 4% of working-age adults struggled to heat their homes adequately, rising to 11% three years later.
IMMIGRATION
Conservative governments have repeatedly missed targets to reduce net migration, even post-Brexit and the end of freedom of movement with the EU.
While more EU workers are leaving than arriving, immigration from countries like India and Nigeria has increased significantly.
Net migration dropped to 685,000 in 2023 from a record 764,000 in 2022 but remains nearly four times higher than 2019 levels.
INACTIVITY
A shortage of workers has contributed to increased immigration, exacerbated by high long-term sickness and student populations.
Britain is the only G7 country where the inactivity rate among working-age people exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
HEALTH
The National Health Service (NHS) faces significant challenges, with almost 8 million people in England waiting for non-urgent treatment by late 2023, nearly double the figure from four years earlier.
Health spending, adjusted for inflation, has grown slower since 2010 compared to previous decades, despite a growing and aging population.
HOME-BUILDING
Efforts to boost home construction have fallen short, with opposition slowing plans to simplify building regulations.
England saw just over 234,000 new homes built in the year to March 2023, persistently below the 300,000 target set for mid-2020s.
PRODUCTIVITY AND INVESTMENT
Improving economic growth hinges on enhancing productivity across the UK, particularly outside London and southeast England where productivity remains below average, despite narrowing after the pandemic.
Greater private-sector investment is crucial, yet companies have been cautious since the Brexit referendum in 2016, which sparked prolonged political uncertainty.
